Nine must-read climate change stories of 2021 from around the world
From how Indonesia treats its Elon Musks to the aftermath of "unimaginable" flooding in Germany, here's our pick of Climate Home's best reporting this year
From Fertilizer to Fuel: Can ‘Green’ Ammonia Be a Climate Fix?
Ammonia has been widely used as a fertilizer for the last century. Now, using renewable energy and a new method for making ammonia, researchers and entrepreneurs believe "green" ammonia can become a significant clean fuel source for generating electricity and powering ships.
North Sea Fossil Fuel Companies Plan to Invest More in Wind than Oil Drilling
Having won rights to develop wind farms off the coast of Scotland, Shell, Total, and BP are set to invest more in wind power than in oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in the years ahead, the latest evidence of oil majors changing tack on renewables to better navigate the energy transition.
Amid Pandemic, Tribal-Run Conservation in Africa Proves Resilient
The Covid pandemic has hit African tourism and the wildlife conservation it supports extremely hard. But Indigenous-managed projects, such as the Il Ngwesi eco-lodge and conservancy run by Maasai in Kenya, have benefited by local people’s stewardship of their lands.
Berlin Looks to Create Car-Free Zone Larger Than Manhattan
Berlin's regional parliament is considering creating a car-free zone in the German capital in response to a concerted push from a local advocacy group. The car ban would apply to the space ringed by the S-Bahn train line, which circles the city center, an area larger than Manhattan.
An Amazon Defender Stands Up for Her Land and Her People
Amazon Indigenous leader Juma Xipaia has fought against massive dam projects and the incursion of illegal loggers and miners onto her community’s lands. In a Yale e360 interview, she explains why what’s at stake is the survival of her people and their millennia-old way of life.
U.S. To See Wave of Coal Power Retirements, While Oil Output Ramps Up
Coal is down and oil is up according to the latest projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Coal plants will account for 85 percent of power capacity being retired in the U.S. this year, consistent with a long-term downward trend in coal burning, while U.S. oil output is expected to increase in 2022 and hit a new high in 2023.
Across the Boreal Forest, Scientists Are Tracking Warming’s Toll
From Minnesota to the Northwest Territories, researchers are studying dramatic changes in the vast northern forests: thawing permafrost, drowned trees, methane releases, increased wildfires, and the slow transformation of these forests from carbon sinks to carbon emitters.
2021 Rated One of the Hottest Years Ever as CO2 Levels Hit Record High
2021 was the fifth-hottest year on record and close to 1.2 degrees C (2.1 degrees F) warmer than the preindustrial average, according to an analysis from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The last seven years were the hottest ever "by a clear margin," the analysis found, thanks to rising concentrations of greenhouse gasses, which hit new highs last year.
As Deforestation Grows in the Brazilian Savanna, Government Ends Monitoring
Last year, deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado region, one of the largest savannas in the world, reached its highest level since 2015, according to newly released data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Following that announcement, an INPE researcher said the government would stop monitoring deforestation in the Cerrado, owing to a lack of funds.
French Car Ads Will Soon Be Required to Discourage Driving
In France, where junk food ads must include messages imploring consumers to snack less and eat more fruits and vegetables, car ads will soon be required to include messages encouraging people to walk, bike, or take public transportation, French media report.
Can Synthetic Palm Oil Help Save the World’s Tropical Forests?
Numerous startups are creating synthetic palm oil in the lab, hoping to slow the loss of tropical forests to oil palm cultivation. But palm oil is the most widely used vegetable oil, and producing a synthetic version on a large scale remains a daunting challenge.
Beijing Meets Air Quality Standards for the First Time
Beijing met state air quality standards for the first time in 2021, though it still faces high levels of pollution as it prepares to host the 2022 Winter Olympics.
EVs Made Up Two-Thirds of New Cars Sales in Norway Last Year
Electric cars accounted for roughly two-thirds of new sales in Norway last year, a key milestone on the country’s way to ending the sale of gas-powered cars by 2025, Reuters reported.
NASA's Earth Observatory regularly publishes striking satellite images of our rapidly changing planet, this year showing everything from the massive fires in Greece and California to the historic floods in China and the Netherlands. These photos document the ways humans are remaking the planet, both by building dams, cities, and farms, and by fueling climate change, which, in turn, is spurring more drought, wildfires, floods, and other disasters. See how the Earth has changed in images taken over the past year.
Kentucky to Build State's Largest Solar Project on Former Coal Mine
The renewable energy firm, Savion, is building a 200-megawatt solar installation on a former coal mine on the border of Kentucky and West Virginia. When completed, it will be the largest solar project in Kentucky.
For the European Union, 2021 Was a Banner Year for Solar Power
Installed solar capacity in the European Union grew by 34 percent in 2021, and Europe is now on pace to quadruple its solar energy generation by 2030, according to a new report from SolarPower Europe, a trade organization.
A Series of Droughts Has Weakened the Amazon’s Resilience, Study Finds
Three droughts over the past two decades have affected the Amazon’s ability to bounce back after severe dry spells, reducing the vast rainforest’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, according to a new study by Brazilian and Portuguese researchers.
Climate Clues from the Past Prompt a New Look at History
As scientists rapidly improve their ability to decipher past climate upheaval through ice cores and other "proxies,” historians are re-examining previous political and social turmoil and linking it to volcanic eruptions, prolonged droughts, and other disturbances in the natural world.
The Twelve Days of Christmas Have Grown More Than 8 Degrees F Warmer in Parts of the U.S.
The Twelve Days of Christmas, which last from December 25 through January 5, have grown warmer in 97 percent of the U.S., according to a new analysis from Climate Central that evaluated temperature trends across 246 locations since 1969.
Work on the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) is underway. The Congressionally mandated report is the U.S. Government’s premier assessment of the science of climate change and its impacts on the Nation. It is written by hundreds of experts from around the country, who help ensure that the findings are accessible and useful to the widest...
The U.S. Global Change Research Program is pleased to announce that Allison Crimmins will serve as Director of the FIfth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). She is detailed to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Air and Radiation. As Director, Allison will oversee...
On May 19, 2021, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) announced that Dr. Mike Kuperberg is returning to USGCRP as Executive Director. This is his second stint in USGCRP leadership, having served previously as Executive Director from 2015 through November 2020. He is detailed from the Department of Energy’s Office of...
NASA, on behalf of USGCRP, issued a Federal Register Notice (FRN) seeking author nominations and scientific/technical inputs for the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). The FRN, which opened October 15, 2020 and closed the following month on November 14, also served as a notice of planned public engagement opportunities. Prospective authors...
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, the latest in a series of spacecraft designed to monitor our oceans, launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in central California on Saturday, November 21, 2020. The satellite will be followed in 2025 by its twin, Sentinel-6B. Together, the pair is tasked with extending our nearly 30-year-long record of global sea...
The U.S. Global Change Research Program extends our condolences to the family and friends of Dr. Mike Freilich, a widely respected geoscientist and former director of NASA’s Earth Science Division, and shares the loss of a longtime member of the USGCRP family.
Dr. Anthony Janetos, a longstanding member of the USGCRP community and Director of Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, passed away on Tuesday, August 6, 2019. He was 64 years old. Dr. Janetos dedicated his career to interdisciplinary, policy-relevant global change science. Prior to the Pardee...
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is pleased to announce the release of Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) and the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2). NCA4 Vol II NCA4 Vol II, Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States , assesses a range of potential climate change-related impacts, with an...
The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Vol. II remains on track for a December delivery in fulfillment of the Congressional mandate. NCA4 Vol. I, the Climate Science Special Report, is available at science2017.globalchange.gov. Final agency review and comment. Authors have been revising chapters and responding to comments submitted in the...
It’s been a while since our last update, but rest assured that we’ve been hard at work on Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4 Vol. II) in the meantime. Here’s a brief rundown of the goings-on: Public review and comment. This winter (November 3, 2017 through January 31, 2018), the public had the chance to weigh in on the draft...
The November contiguous U.S. average temperature was 45.18 degress Fahrenheit, 3.49 degress Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. The precipitation total was 1.28 inches, 0.95 inches below average.
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November was 0.91 degrees C (1.64 degress Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees C (59.9 degress Fahrenheit).
According to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, during November, there were 25 preliminary tornado reports. This is well below, less than half, of the 1991-2010 average of 58 tornadoes for the month of November. For this reference period, November has the fourth lowest average number of tornadoes for any month behind December (24), January (35) and February (29).
The North American climate in November was driven by a Rossby wave-train that featured a trough near Alaska, a ridge over the western U.S., and a trough in the east. It resembled a positive PNA pattern, but the Alaskan trough was farther north and the ridge was farther south than the canonical pattern. The pattern was persistent throughout November but was strongest later in the month.
Approximately three percent of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) was covered by snow at the beginning of November according to NOAA's National Snow Analysis. The highest elevations of the Sierras, Rockies and Cascades as well as portions of the central High Plains and northern Great Lakes received late-October snowfall that remained on the ground at the beginning of the month.
As of November 30th, 53.42% of the Contiguous U.S. was experiencing drought conditions, 35.11% was in severe drought, 17.77% extreme, and 5.33% exceptional.
For November, 5,984 fires (4th most since 2000) burned 278,740 acres (6th most on record), which is 46.6 acres burned/fire (10th most on record). For September - November, 11,461 fires (9th least since 2000) burned 1,915,263 acres (4th most on record), which is 167.1 acres burned/fire (5th most on record). For January - November, 54,350 fires (6th least since 2000) burned 6,802,729 acres (10th least on record), which is 125.2 acres burned/fire (9th most on record).
Global tropical cyclone activity remained quiet in November. Six named storms were active in November, which is near normal. However, there are typically around four hurricanes and two major hurricanes, but this November had none of either. The global ACE for November was the lowest on record since 1981. The 87 named storms for January-November 2021 remains near normal, but the 33 tropical cyclones and 14 major tropical cyclones are both at least tied for the fewest since 1981.
During November, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) was 35.45 million square km (13.69 million square miles), 4.38% above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea ice extent was 24.72 million square km (9.54 million square miles), 7.07% below the 1981-2010 average.
We study ocean temperatures. The earth’s seas just broke a heat increase record | John Abraham
Last year the oceans absorbed heat equivalent to seven Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating each second, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year
I was fortunate to play a small part in a new study, just published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, which shows that the Earth broke yet another heat record last year. Twenty-three scientists from around the world teamed up to analyze thousands of temperature measurements taken throughout the world’s oceans. The measurements, taken at least 2,000 meters (about 6,500ft) deep and spread across the globe, paint a clear picture: the Earth is warming, humans are the culprit, and the warming will continue indefinitely until we collectively take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
We used measurements from the oceans because they are absorbing the vast majority of the heat associated with global warming. In fact, more than 90% of global warming heat ends up in the oceans. I like to say that “global warming is really ocean warming”. If you want to know how fast climate change is happening, the answer is in the oceans.
More than 400 weather stations beat heat records in 2021
Maximiliano Herrera, watcher of extreme weather, says last year likely to be in top five or six hottest in history
More than 400 weather stations around the world beat their all-time highest temperature records in 2021, according to a climatologist who has been compiling weather records for over 30 years.
Maximiliano Herrera keeps track of extreme weather around the world, and publishes an annual list of records broken in the previous year. He and many other climatologists and meteorologists who follow these issues closely expect that 2021 will probably not be the hottest year in history (Noaa and Nasa will publish their results in the next few days).
I’m a climate scientist. Don’t Look Up captures the madness I see every day | Peter Kalmus
A film about a comet hurtling towards Earth and no one is doing anything about it? Sounds exactly like the climate crisis
The movie Don’t Look Up is satire. But speaking as a climate scientist doing everything I can to wake people up and avoid planetary destruction, it’s also the most accurate film about society’s terrifying non-response to climate breakdown I’ve seen.
The film, from director Adam McKay and writer David Sirota, tells the story of astronomy grad student Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) and her PhD adviser, Dr Randall Mindy (Leonardo DiCaprio), who discover a comet – a “planet killer” – that will impact the Earth in just over six months. The certainty of impact is 99.7%, as certain as just about anything in science.
Telling people to ‘follow the science’ won’t save the planet. But they will fight for justice | Amy Westervelt
The climate emergency has clear themes with heroes and villains. Describing it this way is how to build a movement
The biggest success of the fossil fuel industry’s decades-long campaign to push doubt about climate science is that it forced the conversation about the climate crisis to centre on science.
It’s not that we didn’t need scientific research into climate change, or that we don’t need plenty more of it. Or even that we don’t need to do a better job of explaining basic science to people, across the board (hello, Covid). But at this moment, “believe science” is too high a bar for something that demands urgent action. Believing science requires understanding it in the first place. In the US, the world’s second biggest carbon polluter, fewer than 40% of the population are college educated and in many states, schools in the public system don’t have climate science on the curriculum. So where should this belief – strong enough to push for large-scale social and behavioural change – be rooted exactly?
Amy Westervelt is a climate journalist and the founder and executive producer of the Critical Frequency podcast network
‘We need a new commons’: how city life can offer us the vital power of connection
The pandemic has seen borders close and divisions widened. But in almost all aspects of life, humanity will only thrive by coming together
During the pandemic, the nations of the world set about energetically strengthening borders around themselves, and within themselves, as states restricted entry. During the early lockdowns, according to the UNHCR, 168 of the world’s 195 countries partially or entirely closed their borders. This hit refugees particularly hard. “Movement is vital for people who are in flight,” said Filippo Grandi, the head of UNHCR. “They save their lives, by running.”
The virus knows no borders; it is the ultimate globalist. Covid-19 put an end to the idea that the 19th-century European nation state is the political arrangement we should all aspire to. The nation state is an outdated concept, and ill serves the present emergency. The rich countries have frozen immigration. But when people can’t move, they also can’t earn. Global remittances – money sent back to their families by people working abroad – which amount to four times all the foreign aid given by the rich countries to the poor ones – have gone down two years in a row. Poor countries will be poorer.
Climate cost study authors accuse Bjørn Lomborg of misinterpreting results | Temperature Check
A key claim in a column by the Danish thinktank head frustrates scientists who modelled reducing emissions
Temperature Check is a weekly column examining claims about climate change made by governments, politicians, business and in the media. See the latest column and follow the series here
Poverty, not climate breakdown, caused Madagascar’s food crisis, finds study
But scientists say ‘moral imperative’ remains to prepare vulnerable populations for increasingly extreme weather
Poverty and a heavy reliance on annual rains are the key factors behind the devastating food crisis in southern Madagascar not climate breakdown, a new study finds.
A million people in the region are struggling for food following the worst drought in 30 years. But the scientific analysis did not show a convincing link to global heating, despite the World Food Programme describing it as the “world’s first climate-induced famine”.
Scientists attending Cop26 have sent a clear warning to policymakers: get a move on, because every moment of delay, every extra fraction of a degree of global heating will have dire consequences.
That message has been reinforced at Glasgow with reports, forums and discussions, but those involved in channelling the science to the world’s leaders are frustrated that words are still not being matched by actions.
Leading climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe: ‘You have the ability to use your voice’
Hayhoe says people can use their roles in their workplaces and communities to act on the climate crisis
Katharine Hayhoe has wrestled with her climate footprint. The climate scientist, who is now chief scientist for the nonprofit The Nature Conservancy, was shocked when she realized how much of her personal emissions came from work travel. But are these more justifiable because her work is educating people about the climate crisis?
There has long been a debate about how much individual actions matter when it comes to climate. The oil industry’s promotion of the concept of the carbon footprint has led some to believe that the whole idea is a huge distraction technique to divert attention from corporations driving the crisis. But as Greta Thunberg demonstrates, individuals can have a big impact, just not always in ways that can be measured.
Australia risks losing jobs to other countries if it fails to lift its below-average spending on research and development, a peak science body has warned, amid Scott Morrison’s vow to promote “technology not taxes” on climate policy.
Australia invests just 1.8% of its economic output in research and development, well behind the OECD average of 2.5%.
When the ambitious plan to allow sea water to flood over the Steart peninsula in Somerset was completed in 2014, critics called it a waste of money. Floods had recently blighted the nearby area, and some local people argued the £20m spent on creating a new 250-hectare (617-acre) salt marsh would have been better spent on other flood-prevention projects.
Seven years ago, the concept of “blue carbon” – how marine ecosystems store carbon – was in its infancy. Some research had looked at how mangrove forests absorb carbon, but little was known about how effective seagrass and salt marshes also were at absorbing greenhouse gas emissions.
The Science Weekly podcast is in Glasgow, where we are bringing listeners daily episodes from Cop26. Each morning you will hear from one of the Guardian’s award-winning environment team. Today, host Madeleine Finlay talks to the Guardian’s energy correspondent Jillian Ambrose about plans to end coal use. And as Cop26 week one draws to a close U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry gives his thoughts
More than 40 countries agreed to phase out their use of coal-fired power, the dirtiest fuel source, in a boost to UK hopes of a deal to “keep 1.5C alive” at the Cop26 summit on Thursday.
Major coal-using countries including Canada, Poland, South Korea, Ukraine, Indonesia and Vietnam will phase out their use of coal for electricity generation, with the bigger economies doing so in the 2030s and smaller economies doing so in the 2040s. However, some of the world’s biggest coal-dependent economies, including Australia, China, India and the US, were missing from the deal, and experts and campaigners told the Guardian that the phase-out deadlines countries signed up to were much too late.
Climate depression is real. And it is spreading fast among our youth | Peter Kalmus
This is a crisis that cannot be solved by ‘positive messaging’. The only thing that will help is action from world leaders
If you are anything like me, you think of the climate emergency a lot. Possibly every waking hour. Perhaps you experience the psychological tension caused by feeling trapped between the truth of climate and ecological destruction on the one hand and inaction from world leaders on the other. I feel this tension myself, and as a parent and climate activist, I see it affecting young people especially hard.
We are in a growing epidemic of serious climate depression among young people. This is a crisis that cannot be solved by “positive messaging” any more than climate breakdown itself. Ultimately, the only thing that will help the mental and physical safety of every age group, including the young, is meaningful action from world leaders.
Peter Kalmus is a climate scientist and author of Being the Change: Live Well and Spark a Climate Revolution
The heatwaves and wildfires that caused devastation in Europe this summer would not have happened without global heating, new analysis shows.
The summer of 2021 was the hottest on record in the continent, with average temperatures about 1C above normal. The elevated heat caused wildfires and premature deaths.
Fiddling with plastics while the planet burns | Letters
Quentin Macfarlane regrets that we are not able to see the bigger picture of the crisis facing humanity; plus letters from Stephen Warde, Debbie Martyr and Tom Hardy
In his justifiably bleak piece (Capitalism is killing the planet – it’s time to stop buying into our own destruction, 30 October), George Monbiot claims that the existential crisis facing humanity has arisen in spite of our “greater intelligence” and “highly evolved consciousness”. In this aspect of his argument, he is wrong. Consciousness is an evolutionary process and, in terms of how far we have progressed, we are still in our infancy. As a result, we are not yet able to see the bigger picture and our place not only in the world but in the cosmos. We cannot think much beyond our next car, meal or overseas holiday – all of them contributors to systemic environmental collapse.
This is especially true of our political leaders, who cannot think much beyond the next election. Until we, as a species, attain a much higher level of consciousness, politicians are unlikely to place the planet ahead of economic interests, as this largely determines whether or not they hold on to power. It would be misplaced, therefore, to expect a major breakthrough on climate change any time soon. Monbiot rather dismisses the small things that we, as individuals, can do because, he argues, in the absence of seismic change, reducing our use of coffee cups or plastic makes little difference. Having not eaten meat for 15 years I’ve resolved this week of Cop26 to stop eating dairy. This small gesture will of course make not one iota of difference to climate change, but at least I can feel a little better about myself as we hurtle towards the apocalypse. Quentin Macfarlane Auchmithie, Angus
Dutch physicist who helped to identify the links between human-induced climate change and extreme weather disasters
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, who has died aged 59 of multiple myeloma, was co-founder and member of a team of scientists who identified — at speed and while politically a hot topic — the links between human-induced climate change and forest fires, heatwaves, drought, flood and other specific meteorological catastrophes.
This is trickier than it sounds. Extreme events have always happened, and for decades most climate scientists were not willing to say that this or that flood or heatwave was directly powered by ever-higher greenhouse gas emissions driven by profligate fossil fuel use. If they did, it was usually long after the event.
The big idea: Is democracy up to the task of climate change?
As elected governments fall short on their pledges, some look approvingly to the authoritarian playbook. Are they right?
It’s time to acknowledgea difficult truth: our democracies are failing us on the climate crisis. As world leaders meet for the crucial Glasgow summit, rhetorical commitments abound. But no government has a plan compatible with the goal that they have all agreed is critical to our collective future: limiting global average temperature rises to 1.5C. In some democracies, such as the UK, there is at least a consensus that something must be done; in others, such as Australia, Canada and the US, political debate rages over the most fundamental questions. Faced with a problem of these proportions, some are running out of patience. The veteran Earth scientist James Lovelock puts his faith in eco-authoritarianism. Climate change is so severe, he has said, that “it may be necessary to put democracy on hold for a while”.
Lovelock may state this explicitly, but in my many years of work on climate policy and politics, I have been struck by how often people make the same argument implicitly. Bill Gates, in his breathlessly upbeat book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, describes how enlightened investment strategies from well-meaning entrepreneurs could save the day. No need to bother, he implies, with winning hearts, minds or votes. Then there are those who look approvingly towards China, a country where the very lack of democratic accountability, they argue, allows leaders to take tough and unpopular decisions. The common theme in all these accounts is that the public are not to be trusted – they do not understand, or care; they are too selfish, or too shortsighted. Better to let the experts decide.
We’re in uncharted territory for the world’s climate, UN says
Report sets out heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and floods that have wreaked havoc this year
The climate crisis has driven the planet into “uncharted territory”, with far-reaching repercussions for today’s and future generations, according to the UN World Meteorological Organization. It said the Cop26 summit was a “make-or-break opportunity to put us back on track”.
The WMO’s State of the Global Climate report shows that the last seven years have been the hottest seven years on record, and that accelerating sea level rise hit new heights in 2021. It also sets out the heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and floods that have wreaked havoc across the planet this year and is intended to inform Cop26 negotiations.
Saving Us by Katharine Hayhoe review – across the climate crisis divide
A scientist and gifted speaker makes a convincing case for calm, informed discussions in the race to avert catastrophe
It’s not an exaggeration to say that Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World is one of the more important books about climate change to have been written. Much of the literature to date feeds the appetite of readers who are already interested in the issue, but this book by Katharine Hayhoe, an internationally renowned climate scientist, could result in a massive expansion of interest in the subject.
Hayhoe is a gifted public speaker and Saving Us is a follow-up to her terrific Ted Talk in 2018, “The most important thing you can do to fight climate change: talk about it”. It is an entertaining masterclass on the science of communication, which pulls no punches about the threat that humanity faces or the size of the task to avoid catastrophic consequences.
Cop26: Boris Johnson talks the talk but can he really deliver a climate deal?
This week’s talks in Glasgow will be a test of commitment. But there has been little hard diplomacy from Britain, the host nation, to ease the path to an agreement
Anyone who listened to Rishi Sunak’s budget speech last Wednesday could be forgiven for concluding that there is nothing particularly urgent for people to worry about – economically or existentially – on the climate front.
The chancellor was 35 minutes into his third budget address to MPs before he even alluded to matters environmental. And when a reference finally came it was a fairly brief one – to the government’s “ambitious net zero strategy” – of which he is said to be no great fan. Throughout the entire budget, Sunak did not use the phrase “climate change” once.
Renewable energy developers face supply shortages and high levels of uncertainty, which lead to higher prices.
By Dan Gearino
For more than a decade, companies that wanted to buy wind and solar power got to enjoy the fact that the prices for renewable energy got cheaper almost every year.
Wind and Solar Costs Have Risen. How Long Should We Expect This Trend to Last?
Wind and Solar Costs Have Risen. How Long Should We Expect This Trend to Last?
Clean energy stories behind the headlines reported by Dan Gearino
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For more than a decade, companies that wanted to buy wind and solar power got to enjoy the fact that the prices for renewable energy got cheaper almost every year.
Then, prices began to rise in some places, with the trend becoming clear by the end of 2020. It was easy to dismiss this as a mere blip due to economic disruption caused by the pandemic.
But prices continued to increase in 2021, and I’m wondering how long this is going to last.
“We’re in particularly weird times,” said Ben Serrurier, a manager in the carbon-free electricity practice at RMI, the research and advocacy group.
He said price increases aren’t surprising, considering the high demand for renewable energy and the many challenges that developers are facing in trying to build projects to generate it.
The prices reflect rising costs and high levels of uncertainty for the wind and solar developers offering the contracts, said Rob Collier, vice president of developer relations for LevelTen Energy, a Seattle company that runs an online marketplace for buyers and sellers of renewable energy.
“What we’re seeing in the market is a huge surge in demand” for wind and solar from buyers, he said. “At the same time we’re seeing a shortfall of viable projects to meet that demand.”
Prices being offered by developers selling U.S. wind and solar contracts rose 15.7 percent in 2021 compared to the prior year, reaching $36.30 per megawatt-hour, according to the P25 index produced by LevelTen, released this month as part of the company’s quarterly report on national and regional price trends.
Wind and solar projects are facing delays because of shortages of raw materials, bottlenecks in international shipping and a backlog of applications for grid connections with regional grid operators, the report said.
Developers also are having to deal with more challenges to their obtaining state and local building permits, sometimes in the form of counties passing ordinances restricting new projects. Indiana is one of the places this is happening, with county ordinances that restrict projects being adopted in large swaths of the state, as I reported last year.
Some of the causes of the price increases could go on for a while. A good example is the grid operators’ backlog, which could take years to resolve in some parts of the country.
But Collier sees a hopeful story as well, which is that demand for wind and solar remains strong, even with higher prices. For example, the Clean Energy Buyers Association, a group of corporate giants like Amazon and Google, made agreements to buy 7.88 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in the first three quarters of 2021, which was on pace to match the record of 10.63 gigawatts from 2020.
The buyers of wind and solar contracts include corporations, governments or any other entities that want the reputational and financial benefits of renewable energy. The financial benefits come from the way long-term contracts for renewable energy can serve as a financial hedge against volatile electricity market prices.
Another leading source of price data for wind and solar is the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which showed in its most recent reports that wind and solar contract prices had leveled off after years of declines and were rising in some places.
Recent price increases are jarring considering that, from 2009 to 2021, the average price of U.S. solar power contracts fell by about 15 percent per year, according to the lab’s data. Wind power contract prices also had steadily fallen between 2009 and 2018, with the exception of an increase in 2015.
Prices fell during the 2010s largely because manufacturers found ways to cut costs through economies of scale, which led to less expensive wind and solar components. At the same time, developers gained their own economies of scale by building larger projects, among other factors. The result was lower prices.
Those years cover almost my entire time covering the business of energy, a period when the decreasing prices of wind and solar fueled the idea that a transition to clean energy could be done affordably.
I also learned not to overreact to short-term price changes, which is useful in times like these.
How long will this last? I asked the experts.
“I think, at least for the next couple quarters, we’ll be in the same state of the world where we are now, and we won’t see major (price) declines,” Collier said.
Serrurier was reluctant to predict what’s ahead for pricing, but he did feel confident that the market remains strong.
“It’s still a growth market and growth markets can have dislocations in bringing supplies online, even in normal times,” he said.
Photo Credit: Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Other stories about the energy transition to take note of this week:
Sale of North Dakota’s Largest Coal Plant Now Includes Plans for a Wind Farm: Great River Energy of Minnesota is asking the rural electric co-ops that it serves to approve a revised contract to sell Coal Creek Station, the largest coal-fired power plant in North Dakota. As I reported last week, the new contract includes plans for a 400-megawatt wind farm. The coal plant’s buyer is going to allow Great River to use an interstate power line that is also part of the deal to deliver wind energy from the planned wind farm, a significant addition to the sale agreement that Great River is praising. Great River provided details on the wind farm this week, with an announcement that Apex Clean Energy is the developer of a project to be located in McClean County, the same county as the coal plant. The wind farm would be the largest in the state, as Amy Sisk reports for The Bismarck Tribune. County officials had passed rules to limit wind farm development, but officials are now saying they are willing to revise the rules to allow the wind farm because the development is part of a larger agreement that would keep the coal plant operating.
War Between Energy Titans Could Shape New England Climate: NextEra Energy and Avangrid Inc., two of the world’s largest energy companies, have been locked in a battle over which electricity resources will gain the upper hand in New England’s electricity grid. NextEra has been trying to get a contract to help solidify the finances of its Seabrook nuclear power plant in New Hampshire while Avangrid has been trying to build a grid connection between New England and Quebec that would increase the flow of low-cost hydropower from Canada. The companies have taken steps to hinder each other’s efforts, even though analysts say that New England needs all the carbon-free electricity it can get, as Ben Storrow reports for E&E News.
Schwarzenegger Doesn’t Like California Net Metering Proposal: Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the latest in a large cast of characters stepping forward to criticize the California Public Utilities Commission’s proposal to increase costs for owners of rooftop solar. “Now California is about to take a big step backward by setting up huge barriers for consumers to adopt solar power,” he wrote in an opinion piece in The New York Times. “Installing panels on roofs is one of the fastest ways to produce renewable energy. They can be installed without complicated permitting or land fights, and they produce immediate reductions in dirty and dangerous emissions.”
Lake Erie Offshore Wind Project Gets More Time to Arrange Financing: Developers of the Icebreaker offshore wind farm near Cleveland have been given an extension on a federal grant to help pay for construction, staving off a potentially devastating setback. The extension gives the project more time to arrange financing and to try to resolve a legal challenge before the Ohio Supreme Court, as Peter Krouse reports for Cleveland.com. The project, which has been in the works for years, would be the first freshwater offshore wind project in the United States.
Inside Clean Energy is ICN’s weekly bulletin of news and analysis about the energy transition. Send news tips and questions to dan.gearino@insideclimatenews.org.
A task force appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis is calling for research and investment in mitigation. Environmentalists say the real fix is cracking down on polluters.
By Aman Azhar
A task force appointed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to address the state’s algal bloom crisis concluded in a recent report that “without hard work and careful planning” adverse human health impacts and widespread wildlife mortality would most likely “worsen” because of climate change and the state’s growing population.
Today's Climate - Exxon’s New Net-Zero Goal May Not Mean All You Think
Today's Climate - Exxon’s New Net-Zero Goal May Not Mean All You Think
A twice-a-week digest of the most pressing climate-related news, released every Tuesday and Friday, written by Kristoffer Tigue.
Exxon’s New Net-Zero Goal May Not Mean All You Think
ExxonMobil has announced it aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, putting the oil giant in line with some of its peers, as investors continue to hound energy companies to do more to tackle the climate crisis. While Exxon said in December that it would meet net-zero emissions at its Permian Basin operations by 2030, it’s the first time the oil major has set such a goal across its whole business.
The announcement, released Tuesday, marks a major shift at Exxon, which has long resisted calls from climate activists to change its business practices and drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The move also underscores a sea change when it comes to how the world’s top energy companies are dealing with public outcry over global warming and how their products have contributed to it.
“It’s both a big deal and not a big deal,” said Nicholas Kusnetz, ICN’s oil and gas reporter. “It is a sign that net-zero has become a must-have for big corporations. Essentially Exxon couldn’t dodge it any longer.”
But the pledge also comes with major caveats that shouldn’t be overlooked, Kusnetz added, including a “cautionary statement” to investors that says any number of factors, including government policies, market conditions and even conflict could prevent the company from reaching the net-zero target. The nearly 1,100-word statement warns investors that the company’s new goal “is not intended to communicate any material investment information” and merely represents “a good faith effort by the Company to address [shareholder] requests despite significant unknown variables and, at times, inconsistent market and government policy signals.”
Exxon’s new goal also doesn’t cover the company’s scope 3 emissions—the emissions that come from its customers burning the fossil fuels it sells—meaning the majority of CO2 emissions Exxon helps put into the atmosphere are unaccounted for. Perhaps most importantly, the new aim did not indicate any change in direction for the company’s investments, which are still directed predominantly towards new oil and gas production.
“While today’s announcement reflects a step forward for ExxonMobil, by failing to incorporate scope 3 emissions into its targets, it continues to lag the majority of its peer competitors, particularly Europeans,” said Mike Coffin, head of oil, gas and mining at Carbon Tracker, a think tank that focuses on climate and finance.
Another question to consider is how seriously Exxon is taking its new goal and the likelihood it will be able to achieve it. The company has long resisted such long-term goals to reduce emissions, with Exxon’s chief executive Darren Woods in 2020 comparing such targets to “a beauty competition” aimed at appeasing investors without actually making a difference.
Many environmentalists now criticize “net-zero” pledges from major companies as meaningless, saying they fall far short of what’s needed to meet global climate goals. Many of the pledges rely heavily on unproven technologies such as carbon capture and storage. Exxon did not spell out in detail how it would reach its goal, for example to what extent it would rely on buying emissions offsets.
A particularly jarring juxtaposition is that in that same report where Exxon announced its new goal, the company also says that it doesn’t expect the world to meet its ambitious climate targets, including any net-zero pledges and the Paris Agreement targets. In the report’s outlook, which the company said is based on its assessment of current trends in policy, technology and economic growth, Exxon expects oil and gas demand to actually grow by 2050, a pathway that would put net-zero out of reach.
Today’s Indicator
That’s how much money Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is proposing to address climate change in his state, including funding for reducing building emissions and investing in clean energy and transportation.
Legal experts say that ExxonMobil is using an unusual Texas procedural rule to intimidate its climate critics and bully them into silence, The Guardian reports.
The CEO of the world's largest asset manager is defending the company’s push to take the finance world down a more sustainable path by incorporating issues like the threat of climate change into investment practices, Reuters reports.
A new survey of 2,000 of the world’s top executives shows that climate change concerns are growing among global firms, but the companies still struggle to implement solutions to address those worries, Bloomberg reports.
But no one knows exactly how much, because the Pentagon’s reporting is spotty. A Humvee gets between four and eight miles per gallon; an F-35 requires 2.37 gallons per mile.
On the holiday honoring the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., scientists, theologians, ministers and climate justice advocates find commonality in the movement he led more than half a century ago.
By James Bruggers
Terms like “environmental racism” or “environmental justice” were not yet part of the national lexicon when the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated at the Lorraine Hotel in Memphis on April 4, 1968.
As other central banks take a more activist role, Powell wants Congress and the private sector to assess growing climate risks. Elizabeth Warren calls his views “dangerous.”
By Marianne Lavelle
Many of the questions Jerome Powell faced at his Senate confirmation hearing last week would have been familiar to any Federal Reserve chair on Capitol Hill: Where is the economy heading? What about inflation? How fast could interest rates rise?
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions boomeranged toward pre-pandemic levels in 2021, a turnaround from more than a decade of downward trends, according to a report released Monday by the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. America’s greenhouse gas emissions grew 6.2 percent last year as the economy largely recovered from pandemic lockdowns, the report estimated. In comparison, between 2005 and 2019, U.S. emissions fell nearly 1 percent annually, on average, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
The uptick occurred largely due to a 17 percent jump in coal-fired power generation, the first annual increase in coal generation since 2014, and a rapid resurgence of road transportation. Coal’s comeback was driven largely by a hike in natural gas prices, which made coal power more economically attractive. While last year’s emissions remained 5 percent below 2019 levels, the increase marks a reversal of early pandemic declines.
Why the Luster on Once-Vaunted ‘Smart Cities’ Is Fading BY JIM ROBBINS, YALE ENVIRONMENT 360 “Smart cities” built from scratch have so far failed to live up to their much-hyped promise. Some critics argue that rather than grafting a new city onto the landscape, it is better to integrate high-tech for clean, efficient energy and transportation into existing cities. Read More
Minnesota co-op utilities must vote on approval of the plant’s sale. The new owner is betting on carbon capture to extend its life.
A plan to sell, rather than close, the largest coal-fired power plant in North Dakota is nearly final. The completion of the sale would allow the buyer to move on to the much greater challenge of making the plant financially viable and installing a carbon capture system.
Today's Climate - Can New Jersey Protect the Environment and Vulnerable Communities?
Today's Climate - Can New Jersey Protect the Environment and Vulnerable Communities?
A twice-a-week digest of the most pressing climate-related news, released every Tuesday and Friday, written by Kristoffer Tigue.
Can New Jersey Protect the Environment and Vulnerable Communities?
A plan in New Jersey meant to prevent sewage spills is pitting two of the state’s goals—protecting the environment and protecting vulnerable communities—against one another. It’s a reminder of how easy it can be to lose sight of environmental justice in the pursuit of tackling other green issues, like climate change.
The Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission, a 120-year-old state body that focuses on pollution concerns of the Passaic River and its tributaries, was set on Thursday to approve a $180 million backup power plant that would kick in when a sewage treatment system gets knocked offline, helping to prevent backed up waste from spilling into the state’s waterways. Such a spill happened in 2012 after Superstorm Sandy slammed the region with heavy rain and winds, causing nearly a billion gallons of raw sewage to leak out.
But the plant would be built in the Ironbound neighborhood of Newark, a predominantly Black and Brown community in the most populated city in the state. For years, Ironbound residents and environmental justice groups have been fighting projects like this one, complaining that their community is already overburdened by pollution. The Ironbound neighborhood sits within five miles of the state’s airport, the shipping port, two power plants, three major interstate highways and a plethora of industry.
“Your administration will repeat the historic pattern of placing unfair environmental burdens on communities of color,” a coalition of environmentalists, doctors and local activists wrote in a letter to Gov. Phil Murphy last month, referring to the plans to build the new natural gas-fired power plant.
The group’s concerns are ones shared by many communities and environmental justice groups across the nation, as public opinion pushes lawmakers to take environmental issues like climate change more seriously. Another project in Florida, for example, had a mostly African American community up in arms after the state legislature preempted local governments from blocking solar farms on land that was mainly used for agricultural purposes.
In fact, President Biden made addressing issues of environmental injustice—the idea that communities of color and low-income families often suffer the most pollution and benefit the least from environmental protection laws—a priority of his environmental agenda when he first took office. His administration, however, is struggling to bring that vision into reality.
On Thursday, Gov. Murphy stepped in and delayed the commission’s vote on the Ironbound power plant proposal, handing at least a temporary victory to activists. Murphy is now calling for officials to more thoroughly review the environmental impact of the project.
“I think we cut it very close, but I’m so thankful that the governor came through and delivered on his environmental justice promises,” Maria Lopez Nuñez, a lead organizer at the environmental advocacy group Ironbound Community Corporation, told the Gothamist. “There’s more fight left. Now, we need to make sure that after a meaningful public process that we end up with a solution that’s doable.”
On a rare note of more light-hearted climate news, I’d like to wrap this week by pointing to this E&E story. It details how the New York Times issued a correction on Wednesday for a crossword puzzle clue after readers blasted the publication online, saying it was spreading misinformation. The clue: “greener energy source.” The answer: “clean coal.”
That’s it for Today’s Climate, and I’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.
Today’s Indicator
That’s how much diesel has been recovered so far after a severely corroded pipeline just outside of New Orleans ruptured this week, killing thousands of fish, birds and other animals, officials said.
Facing uncertainty over its national climate policy in Congress, the Biden administration announced new steps on Wednesday aimed at boosting clean energy, including through offshore wind and renewable energy on public lands, The Hill reports.
Federal Reserve board member and Biden nominee Lael Brainard sought to assure Republican senators Thursday that the central bank would not cut off financing to the fossil fuel industry or penalize banks who serve it if she becomes the bank’s No. 2 official, The Hill reports.
The decline of seed-dispersing animals is threatening the ability of plants to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, a new study found, raising fears among scientists that some plants may be facing extinction, The Guardian reports.
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